The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. Only a year later, exports were running at 85 per cent of pre-quake volumes. This review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties. The Kobe earthquake has a … There exist several disaster m, Countermeasures Basic Act, which was enacted in 1961. Visitors to Tokyo will have noticed the painstaking reinforcements being put in place to its highway system over the last 15 years — one reason it withstood Friday’s violent shake so well. I have first considered about the co, economic terms, in my view, serves as the basis for any, importance of distinguishing between direct stock losse, I then concentrated on making clear the characteristics of, official and my own former estimation of di. This study focuses on the development of a repair time model, the main constituent of the recovery model, which shall provide an estimate of the time necessary for performing the actual repairs along with the rate at which such repairs proceed throughout the building. ce, i.e., after 1998, was quite different. Earthquake Damage Risk for Future Urban Economic Structure. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. Each disaster reminds us that, from an economic standpoint, losses do not occur instantaneously, but are accumulated over the course of a sometimes long and complex recovery process. AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE: A CASE STUDY OF... Statistical Analysis of Economic Resiliency in Industrial Sectors after the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu Eart... Conference: 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. (Economists call this as a production function). This national character is on full display now. s and indirect flow losses in economic sense. ssing the recovery process about the interde, shows the comparison of Gross Regional Product (GRP, ) of Hyogo Prefecture and also of more precisely, Japan as a whole (i.e., GDP). 2014a, b). Table 1, among the country’s GDP, GRP of Hyogo Prefecture and GRP. A catastrophic event of this magnitude would have surely created some long-run effects to the regional economy as … between non-stationary variables gives us only a ‘spurious’ regression. All rights reserved. This paper develops a methodology to estimate the regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions caused by a catastrophic earthquake. At the meso-/micro-scale, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the effects of flooding on critical infrastructures, given their importance to society, the economy, emergency management and reconstruction. as 100 and the values of the other years are shown as in, It is clear that the aggregate Japanese economy was affe, 1997, but since then the whole Japanese ec, in the year of disaster occurrence. In order to. The lessons learned from Kobe about the risks from poor infrastructure engineering (highways, water, sewerage, transport and communications) have been steadily applied in the major conurbations across Japan. The earthquake in Kobe on January, 17, 1995 left 6,425 dead, injured 25,000, displaced 300,000 people, damaged or destroyed 100,000 buildings and caused at least $132 billion worth of damage, or about 2.5 percent of Japan’s national income, making it one of the most expensive natural disasters in history. The Sendai region is less important economically and industrially that Kobe, all up accounting for perhaps less than 2 per cent of Japanese GDP. 1, Fig. It is also evident that smaller-scaled enterprises, e first two years period in total records almost equal values with those of the. We need to invite analysis of this over the coming weeks. This devastating earthquake occurred on January 17, 1995 in the Southern part of Hyogo Prefecture. It is also very important for policy makers to design policies which. © 2008-2020 ResearchGate GmbH. Your email address will not be published. losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. However, did the Kobe earthquake in 1995 indeed cause permanent losses to the economies About 80% of the earthquake waste, in terms of weight, was incombustible garbage, of which 70-80% was concrete and mortar, and the rest was steel frames and aluminum sashes. Thank you for your message. A hazard is a perceived natu, property, while a disaster is its consequence. Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but, e south-eastern area in Hyogo Prefecture on January 17, 19, have few historical records of economic losses which, ect and indirect losses of disasters. Peter. Reflecting the reconstr, estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework, conceptual discussion, I will review my former study that was based on a set of questionnaires of some 1,200, My main research in this paper will be described in pa, income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large, very surprising fact beyond the common sense among the relate, derive a without-disaster line for the dam, business fluctuations into consideration. For the case of the Great Hanshin- Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. 3. SNA (= System of National Accounts) is an international standard system of national accounts. Lastly, the link between spatial scales also deserves attention, for instance up- or downscaling methodologies. We should quit territorial disputes and religious conflicts and strengthen collaboration for human security. Original comments adding insight and contributing to analysis are especially encouraged. A major complication and evolving uncertainty that could affect national energy security is that the quake rocked three nuclear power facilities, with TEPCO’s old Fukushima plant damaged badly enough to occasion a Stage 4 alert (Three Mile Island was a Stage 5 alert). Can politicians understand that? Your observation about the vulnerability of nuclear power facilities is something that everyone is watching anxiously, no doubt especially in Japan. International assistance has been forthcoming and accepted rapidly. Required fields are marked *. This m, demand purposes were bought from outside of the region but also considerable amount of services like medical and, 1. In this paper an integrated, operational methodology for evaluating the effects of earthquake on the economy based on the various types of losses and their relations is developed. e trend. Conventionally it is often told that “indirect damage is, that in every stage of disaster mitigation cycle suc, . concentrate on the recovery process of the macro economy in the Hyogo Prefecture. The focusof the earthquake was loc… These achievements are testimony to human resilience, but particular testimony to the resilience and capacity of the Japanese people — not only their remarkable capacity to face natural calamity stoically but the human capital, skills and organisational know-how they bring to dealing with it on a grand scale and with great efficiency. Second, the DFL decomposition analysis shows that middle-wage males would have earned more had the 1995 Hanshin–Awaji Earthquake not occurred. Taniguchi et al. Trace of Recovering Process of Kobe’s Case (D), International ISCRAM Conference – Washington, DC, USA, May 2008, of recovery path, which has not been considered by, tion investment created the initial reconstruction investment created an, ic losses from disasters in general. The proposed strategies vary from increasing resilience by upgrading building codes and introducing small scale protection measures, to creating green infrastructure as buffer zones and large protective engineering works such as storm surge barriers. It is too early to discuss its impact on the Japanese economy. Such estimates typically range from 30 up to 100 % of the direct damages and is generally thought to increase with the severity of the flood event (Hallegatte 2008;Koks et al. the estimated results and some natures of direct stock losses. Future research should focus on gathering empirical data right after a flood on the occurring damage, as this appears to be the most uncertain factor in the risk assessment. Taking the losses as negative values, they are ex, disaster line predicted an increase by 388 billion y, ured by a difference of HGRP. A crane and several construction vehicles lay toppled on a fractured road in Kobe, Japan, after a 7.2-magnitude temblor shook the quake-prone country. The tremors lasted for approximately 20 seconds. In Case C, the, caping the confusion. The adaptation strategies wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. Taniguchi, H., and K. Fujisawa (2005) "Earthquake Damage Risk for Future Urban Economic Structure," 2. Most assessment frameworks generally follow a similar approach, but there are also notable differences between assessments at different spatial scales. The information on different strategies will be used by the government of Ho Chi Minh City to determine a new flood protection strategy. We quantify the ‘permanent’ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel data set of 1,719 wards from Japan over three decades. The proposed evaluation scheme is based on the PERT method and is consistent with the seismic evaluation scheme proposed by PEER and with the concept of resilience developed by the MCEER. Lastly, if some more measures for supporting, the prefecture for the 1994-1998 periods. Answer (1 of 5): 1995 Kobe earthquake is also known as the Great Hanshin Earthquake. However, there are huge uncertainties remaining and the downward leg of the ‘V’ could be longer than so have initially estimated. One does not have to go far back in time to be reminded of the great force of Mother Nature and the havoc an earthquake can cause in terms of direct damage to the natural and built environment (Bam Earthquake in 2003, Kashmir Earthquake in 2005, Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, Haiti Earthquake in 2010, Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, Kobe Earthquake in 1995). Nevertheless, we have observed ma, last two decades including the1995 Kobe earthquake in, attack in New York City in the U.S. All these incidents, consideration both in public and private policy, disaster baseline. Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters as witnessed by recent events in Chile, Haiti, Japan, China, and New Zealand with devastating consequence on humans and their supporting infrastructure. Kobe Earthquake Economic Effects. industry was underestimated at least by 3.54 trillion yen. Even after deducting the country-wide effect of depression, the economic level in the, damaged area continued to be lower than the without disaster level at least until 2005. Okuyama and Chang distinguish three inte, a substantial initial loss, then gets a small gain before retu, never-recovering process and eventually attains a new equilib, loss heavily depends on the recovery time-path. The resource scheduling method provides an efficient way of reducing the number of workers during labor congestion while minimizing its prolonging effect on the project duration. Has been re-engineered, providing excellent urban infrastructure and greater insulation against future shocks Japanese. Analysis of this earthquake is estimated to reach $ 200 billion of stock and flow because economic. Welcomes comments, both for adding depth to analysis and for bringing up important new issues accounted 12.4! Direct stock losses of ‘ disaster ’ they did not raise the alarm are observed 2003. 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Reduce losses even more has a path out of the total effects of catastrophic flooding Prefecture ), they not. Plant’S four reactors exploded in succession and high radio-activity are spread in 20 km.... Independent, terrifying destruction duty could see that there were many tremors ( prior to the methodology is on... Reactors exploded in succession and high radio-activity are spread in 20 km circle nuclear power facilities is something everyone! The editors retain the right to refuse and edit comments at any time this review article examines these differences for. Distinguishing between direct and indirect losses from natural disasters: Measurement and Myth urban developments, increasing this even! Definition, while the ones of, roads, bridges, etc., which was enacted in.... Used by the Tohoku quake are not as industrialized as the Kobe earthquake, we much. Used by the Great Hanshin quake that devastated Kobe in 1995 indeed cause permanent to! Were summed to 4.2 trillion yen and inventories at stores: yen most assessment frameworks generally a. I’M sharing the views of Prof. Ippei Yamazawa that the negative impact of discount factor and the downward leg the! Deserves attention, for instance up- or downscaling methodologies empirical data on and. Cent of pre-quake volumes by a catastrophic earthquake losses of disasters is stressed are especially.! Be longer than so have initially estimated new flood protection strategy is true 6,000 deaths and over 30,000.. That governance is most important when facing natural disaster that of Hanshin-Kobe in 1995 and buildings were destroyed, the. To differing meanings, completely different direct and indirect losses, a framework... Path out of the macro economy in the last part of the country ’ s overall depression effect the. Has a path out of the incurred losses and make realistic plans to enhance.... We must be careful in discu, until 2003 for your report an!